(Ottawa, Canada) - The Bank of Canada raised its overnight policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.5% on October 28, moving from the forecast covered earlier in this article to a confirmed decision.

The Bank Rate is now 2.75%, and the deposit rate is 2.45%.

Governing Council said higher energy costs could spread more broadly into other prices. It left another increase possible, while emphasizing a careful approach amid uncertainty.

The bank projects inflation averaging 3% in 2027 before returning to 2% around mid-2028. It forecasts Canadian growth of 1% this year and 2% in each of 2027 and 2028, with trade relations a major uncertainty. These are projections, not guaranteed outcomes.

The next scheduled rate announcement is December 9.

Source: Bank of Canada’s full October 28 decision.

Earlier forecast reporting — October 23

The following section is retained as historical reporting. The confirmed decision above supersedes its pre-announcement status.

Nineteen of 34 economists in a Reuters survey expect the Bank of Canada to raise its overnight rate by a quarter point to 2.50% on October 28.

The October 21–23 poll marks a shift from the previous survey, when 80% expected the rate to remain at 2.25% through year-end. Among respondents answering the longer-term question, 16 of 29 forecast another increase by March 2027.

These are economists’ forecasts; the bank has not announced the October 28 decision. Reuters reports that dissenting respondents cited economic weakness and limited inflation pressure.

Source: Reuters survey report, October 23.

Editorial illustration.